Areas at Risk for Hurricanes
Coastal Areas and Barrier Islands
All Atlantic and Gulf coastal areas of the United States are subject to
hurricanes and tropical storms. Although rarely struck by hurricanes, parts of
the Southwest United States and Pacific coast suffer heavy rains and floods
each year from the remnants of hurricanes spawned off the Mexican coast.
Over the past 20 years, coastal areas and barrier islands have become densely
populated. Due to their location, limited number of evacuation routes, barrier
islands are especially vulnerable to hurricanes. People on barrier islands and
in vulnerable coastal areas may be ordered by local officials to evacuate well
in advance of a hurricane landfall. Hurricane evacuation clearance times, the
time it takes for people at risk to move to a place of safety, will vary
depending on the number evacuating, evacuation routes, and quickness of
response to evacuation orders. If you are asked to evacuate, do so IMMEDIATELY!
Inland Areas
Hurricanes affect inland areas with high winds, floods, and tornadoes. You
might remember that Hurricane Opal (1995) produced winds of 100 mph in the
Atlanta, Georgia area and spawned tornadoes in Maryland that killed at least
one person. Listen carefully to local authorities to determine what threats you
can expect and take the necessary precautions to protect yourself, your family,
and your property.
The Hurricane Problem in the United States
Population Growth
The United States has a significant hurricane problem. Our shorelines attract
large numbers of people. From Maine to Texas, our coastline is filled with new
homes, condominiums, and cities built on sand and waiting for the next storm
to threaten the residents and their dreams.
There are nearly 50 million permanent residents along the hurricane-prone
coastline, and the population is still growing. The most rapid growth has been
in the sunbelt from Texas through the Carolinas. Florida, where over 80% of the
residents live within 20 miles of the coast and hurricanes are most frequent,
leads the nation in new residents. In addition to the permanent residents, the
holiday, weekend, and vacation populations swell in some coastal areas 10 to
100 fold.
Perception of Risk
Over the past 10 years, the warning system has provided adequate time for
people on the barrier islands and the immediate coastline to move inland when
hurricanes have threatened. However, it is becoming more difficult to evacuate
people from risk areas because roads have not kept pace with the rapid
population growth. The problem is further compounded by the fact that 80 to 90
percent of the population now living in hurricane- prone areas have never
experienced the core of a "major" hurricane. Many of these people have been
through weaker storms. The result is a false impression of a hurricane's damage
potential.
Another factor is the ability to forecast the track and/or point of landfall of
a hurricane over extended periods. Hurricane forecasting is not an exact
science. Over the past 10 years, even with new technology, the margin of error
in forecasting where a hurricane will impact the coast 72 hours in advance is
about 250 miles. That margin of error is still about 75 miles 24 hours in
advance. Unfortunately, due to long clearance times, and the need to have the
evacuation complete before arrival of tropical storm force winds, evacuation
orders in this area must be issued between 72 - 24 hours prior to expected
landfall. Therefore, in some cases, evacuations are conducted and the storm may
not make landfall where forecast when the decision to evacuate was made by
local officials.
These factors often lead to complacency and delayed actions, which could result
in loss of many lives.
Frequency of Hurricanes
During the 70's and 80's, major hurricanes striking the United States were less
frequent than the previous three decades. Since 1995 there has been a
significant increase in hurricane activity and that trend is expected to
continue through this decade. There has also been an increase in the number of
intense hurricanes, which causes much concern. With the tremendous increase in
population along the high-risk areas of our shorelines, we may not fare as well
in the future.
In the final analysis, the only real defense against hurricanes is the informed
readiness of your community, your family, and you.